{"id":919,"date":"2020-08-27T11:34:58","date_gmt":"2020-08-27T11:34:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/camilocisera.com\/?p=919"},"modified":"2020-08-27T11:41:18","modified_gmt":"2020-08-27T11:41:18","slug":"el-mercado-se-adelanta-a-la-economia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/camilocisera.com\/en\/el-mercado-se-adelanta-a-la-economia\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfEL MERCADO SE ADELANTA A LA ECONOM\u00cdA?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"919\" class=\"elementor elementor-919\" data-elementor-settings=\"[]\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-section-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<section data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-db9ae5e elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default elementor-section elementor-top-section\" data-id=\"db9ae5e\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-row\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b1832f5 elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column\" data-id=\"b1832f5\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column-wrap  elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-befd3b9 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"befd3b9\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-text-editor elementor-clearfix\"><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">La idea de que los mercados se adelantan a la econom\u00eda est\u00e1 ampliamente difundida. Seg\u00fan esta l\u00f3gica, el mercado comienza a caer antes de que la econom\u00eda entre en recesi\u00f3n y comienza a recuperarse antes de que la econom\u00eda toque fondo.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">En Argentina tenemos datos de tres grandes crisis pasadas: 2001, 2008 y 2012. Ir\u00f3nicamente, el mercado se comport\u00f3 en todas ellas de forma diferente. En 2001 se atras\u00f3 y comenz\u00f3 a rebotar luego de que la econom\u00eda haya tocado fondo. En la crisis subprime se adelant\u00f3 al rebote de la actividad y en la crisis de 2012 comenz\u00f3 a recuperarse pr\u00e1cticamente al mismo tiempo.<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5c5a61b elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"5c5a61b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-image\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"432\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Imagen-1-1.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Imagen-1-1.png 720w, \/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Imagen-1-1-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-30c2a14 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"30c2a14\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-text-editor elementor-clearfix\"><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Una regresi\u00f3n lineal entre la variaci\u00f3n anual del Merval y la variaci\u00f3n del PBI al a\u00f1o siguiente confirma que <\/span><b>la teor\u00eda de que los mercados se adelantan es d\u00e9bil<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Al menos en Argentina.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Existen casos como 2003 y 2009 en que el Merval duplica su valor en d\u00f3lares y se anticipa correctamente a un rebote importante del PBI, pero tambi\u00e9n existen otras oportunidades en que la bolsa sube m\u00e1s de 25% en d\u00f3lares y al a\u00f1o siguiente la econom\u00eda entra en recesi\u00f3n, como sucedi\u00f3 en 1999, 2013 y 2017.<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5e30544 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"5e30544\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-image\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"743\" height=\"397\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/img-2.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/img-2.png 743w, \/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/img-2-300x160.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 743px) 100vw, 743px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8578aa6 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"8578aa6\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-text-editor elementor-clearfix\"><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">La relaci\u00f3n entre la variaci\u00f3n trimestral del Merval y el resultado del PBI al trimestre siguiente tampoco es significativa.<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cf3056a elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"cf3056a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-image\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"735\" height=\"397\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Imagen-3-1.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Imagen-3-1.png 735w, \/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/Imagen-3-1-300x162.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 735px) 100vw, 735px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-cc53121 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"cc53121\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-text-editor elementor-clearfix\"><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">El mercado est\u00e1 dominado, al menos en el corto plazo, por emociones humanas. Hay expectativas, miedo, codicia, sesgos y comportamientos irracionales constantemente.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Falla en adelantarse porque est\u00e1 operado por personas, y las personas no podemos saber el futuro con exactitud. Quiz\u00e1s ahora que <\/span><span style=\"color: #00acac;\"><a style=\"color: #00acac;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.taylorfinancialgroup.com\/insights\/blog\/why-worry-about-algorithmic-trading\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">la mayor\u00eda de las operaciones<\/span><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> son realizadas por robots, la situaci\u00f3n se torne diferente.<\/span><\/p><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Gracias por leer!<\/span><\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d8c932f elementor-widget elementor-widget-divider\" data-id=\"d8c932f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"divider.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-divider\">\n\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-divider-separator\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-415f98b elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"415f98b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-text-editor elementor-clearfix\"><h6 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #800080;\"><strong>Si te interesa la programaci\u00f3n, en <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a style=\"color: #800080; text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/CamiloCisera\/PBI_Merval\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">este link<\/a><\/span> encontr\u00e1s el c\u00f3digo en Python que arm\u00e9 para este post.<\/strong><\/span><\/h6><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sobre las variaciones del mercado y el futuro de la econom\u00eda.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":918,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v14.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u00bfEL MERCADO SE ADELANTA A LA ECONOM\u00cdA? 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