{"id":1180,"date":"2022-03-10T16:15:00","date_gmt":"2022-03-10T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/camilocisera.com\/?p=1180"},"modified":"2023-04-29T12:48:35","modified_gmt":"2023-04-29T12:48:35","slug":"whats-going-on-with-meta-platforms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/camilocisera.com\/en\/whats-going-on-with-meta-platforms\/","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s going on with Meta Platforms?"},"content":{"rendered":"
Narratives matter. Meta (previously known as Facebook) surpassed USD 1 trillion in market capitalization during the second half of 2021, however, in the last months, the focus of the market shifted from the potential of its immense and engaged family of apps to regulatory and competition issues. As time went by, the stock halved and the company is now valued at USD 520 Bn.<\/p>
The recent 50,9% drawdown is the second largest ever for the company, only surpassed by a 53,6% drop in the first 4 months after its IPO (2012).<\/p>
Meta is now trading at 14x earnings and 4,7x sales. Both metrics are the lowest on record.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
As usual, the stock movement didn\u2019t have much to do with the past of the company. in 2021 Meta achieved 37,2% revenue growth and USD 39,1 Bn in free cash flow (+65,5% YoY). That\u2019s on top of USD 24,65 Bn spent on research & development (+33,6% YoY).<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
The key drivers of the ongoing correction in Meta\u2019s valuation, exacerbated after the last quarterly report, are related to challenges for the coming future:<\/p>\n
The correction in Meta is deepened by the overall market conditions. Rising interest rates and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine pushed the Nasdaq 100 index 20% off its peak.<\/p>\n
But besides the important challenges ahead, there are also positive facts worth mentioning:<\/p>\n
The \u201cfamily of apps\u201d segment revenue grows slower than the digital ads market. Margins take a hit from business headwinds. Reality Labs (Metaverse) keeps burning incremental amounts of cash without yet delivering meaningful results.<\/p>
Narratives focus on social media\u2019s impact on mental health and Meta becomes like \u201cdigital cigarettes\u201d. Funny enough, even valuating Meta at EV\/EBIT of Phillip Morris (14x) means a rise from the current multiple of 10,4x.<\/p>
This scenario could lead to USD 48,7 Bn in EBIT for 2024, slightly up from 2021 levels. At 12x EV\/EBIT that means a 6,3% CAGR for the stock. It\u2019s worth noting that most of the return comes from multiple expansion. So again, narratives matter.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
Meta\u2019s massive reach and engagement continue to drive network effects. TikTok competition and Apple\u2019s iOS changes hit margins. The Metaverse transition becomes less uncertain but still doesn\u2019t provide a meaningful impact on revenues.<\/p>
The company reaches USD 57,7 Bn in EBIT for 2024. A less hostile sentiment allows Meta to trade at 16x EV\/EBIT. In this scenario, the stock could achieve a 25% CAGR.<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
Meta Platforms has several challenges that need to be addressed. There are some ironies within these issues, for example, the same company is suffering from increasing competition and antitrust lawsuits at the same time.<\/p>
The natural slowdown in user growth and a probable drop in time spent by users on their platforms will have an impact on revenue. Despite those headwinds, the broadening digital ads market will keep driving revenues up.<\/p>
Margins, on the other hand, will certainly be lower. Targeting challenges, difficult-to-monetize new trends and Metaverse expenditures are a fact.<\/p>
There\u2019s a big probability of earnings being stagnated during the next few years. Yet, the company will remain a key player in the ever-growing digital ads market while also offering exposure to new initiatives.<\/p>
Regardless of the challenges ahead, the huge drop in value offers an interesting margin of safety. Multiple expansion could lead to attractive returns, so it\u2019s crucial to follow changes in the narratives. Drivers could be Metaverse gaining widespread adoption, iOS impact easing or engagement trends improving. The huge amounts spent on R&D and leading AI capabilities should help.<\/p>
Thanks for reading!<\/p><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t